Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

163
FXUS64 KSHV 200613
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
113 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

 - The oppressive heat will continue today, with the approach of a
   weak surface boundary into far Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest
   Arkansas contributing to compressional warming and the need to
   an upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning for portions of extreme
   Northeast Texas, McCurtain County Oklahoma, and much of
   Southwest Arkansas through this evening.

 - This weak surface boundary will also focus the potential for
   isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this
   afternoon through the evening, which may yield isolated
   damaging downbursts.

 - The oppressive heat will continue through the remainder of the
   forecast period, although the extent of triple digit
   temperatures may be scaled back by Monday as a more
   northwesterly flow aloft may yield daily isolated showers and
   thunderstorms to portions of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

The early morning sfc analysis indicates a a weak sfc trough
extending from Cntrl/Ern OK just S of OKC to near MLC, into NW and
Nrn AR from near FSM to CCA to N of JBR as of 05Z. This bndry has
resulted in a narrow band of elevated convection that continues to
push SE across Wrn and Cntrl AR, which should remain N of our Nrn
most AR counties before gradually diminishing overnight. However,
this bndry remains progged to drift S into our Nrn most counties
by mid and late afternoon, resulting in compressional warming
which may be similar to what was observed Wednesday afternoon over
Ern OK/NW AR, where ambient air temps climbed to 108-111 degrees.
Did increase the max temp forecast slightly for areas along and N
of the I-30 corridor, which when combined with the humidity, will
result in heat indices up to 113 degrees. Thus, the existing Heat
Advisory has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning for much of
extreme NE TX/McCurtain County OK, and all of SW AR except Union
County, and have maintained the Heat Advisory elsewhere with
widespread triple digit temps again expected and heat indices of
up to 110 degrees expected despite the mixing of dewpoints.
Another concern is the development of isolated to scattered
convection along this sfc bndry late this afternoon and especially
this evening, that the various CAMs suggest will occur once
heating/instability is maximized and a weakness aloft slides SE
across Srn/Ern AR around the periphery of the upper ridge. This
convection will likely be a bit elevated, yielding the potential
for isolated damaging downbursts with some of the CAMS actually
backdooring SW into portions of N LA this evening. Have expanded
chance pops a bit farther SSW from the earlier forecast this
evening, which may linger even into a portion of the overnight
hours given the extent of lingering heat/instability. Given the
elevated nature of the convection, QPF amounts should not be
excessive, but will take anything at this point to cool the
existing air mass and wet the parched grounds in place areawide.

There is some suggestion amongst the short term progs that the
aforementioned sfc trough may drift a bit farther S and linger
Friday across portions of NE TX/Srn AR/extreme Nrn LA, which may
again focus an area of compressional warming and thus
necessitating a need for an Extreme Heat Warning extension for
this area. Regardless, some sort of heat product will again be
needed areawide Friday, but will allow the day shift to make that
call once newer model data is analyzed. A weakness aloft may again
linger along the edge of the upper ridging in place, which along
with the sfc trough, could yield isolated to widely scattered
afternoon and evening convection over much of the region.

While the center of the upper ridging will begin to amplify N from
the Four Corners Region this afternoon through Friday, enough of a
NW flow aloft will persist through at least Saturday for the
potential for isolated afternoon and evening convection over the
region, but will be too little, too late to provide any relief to
the widespread triple digit temps. Unfortunately, the center of
the ridging will begin to drift E into the Srn Plains Sunday which
will maintain the triple digit heat, while also diverting any
weaknesses farther ENE of the area. However, this may be temporary
as the convection development may help to weaken the ridge
slightly early in the new work week to allow for isolated to
scattered convection development over at least portions of Srn
AR/NCntrl and NE LA. This may also result in a slight "cooling" of
the afternoon temps as they try to ease back into the mid and
upper 90s, although triple digit temps still look to linger a bit
longer across E TX. However, confidence remains low in regards to
the extent of convection coverage and the extent of these
slightly cooler temps, given the various model shifts in solutions
the last couple of days.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For the 06z TAF package, currently seeing VFR conditions across our
entire airspace with some thinning cirrus noted as well as some
higher AC cloud cover near and north of the I-20 Corridor. Will
watch to see if we can get any MVFR cloud cover northward out of SE
TX closer to sunrise that could perhaps impact the LFK terminal but
for now will leave out any kind of MVFR ceiling down that way. Some
of the high res progs are hinting at late afternoon/evening
convection developing across the Ouachitas of SE OK and SW AR with
this activity diving southward, perhaps impacting our airspace in
the 00z-06z timeframe and perhaps beyond. For now, have decided to
leave out any mention of convection during this time period but will
reassess this possibility for the 12z TAF package if newer model
guidance comes into better agreement.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening
in Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas, and for portions of
extreme Northeast texas and Northern Louisiana this evening for
thunderstorms that may produce damaging downburst winds. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 104  78 103  78 /   0  30  20  20
MLU 102  77 102  75 /  10  30  20  20
DEQ 106  71 103  71 /  20  20  20  20
TXK 104  77 103  75 /  20  30  20  20
ELD 104  75 102  73 /  20  40  10  20
TYR 104  80 104  79 /   0  20  30  20
GGG 105  79 105  77 /   0  20  30  20
LFK 101  77 102  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ077.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ096-097-108>112.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ124>126-136>138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13